Mister Moleman and his Friends

That first assertion could be made only by someone with a very weak connection to reality. To doubt Iran’s serious commitment to “weaponizing thdeir nuclear capacity”, one must ignore:

• Iran’s ten-year history of covert nuclear development;
• Iran’s outright rejection of numerous UN mandates to open its nuclear program to inspection;
• Iran’s insistence on moving its nuclear facilities to underground bunkers;
• Iran’s continuing official threats to destroy America and wipe Israel “off the map”;
• Subtle hints like this headline from Iran’s official news agency: “The wife of an assassinated Iranian nuclear scientist reiterated on Tuesday that her husband sought the annihilation of the Zionist regime wholeheartedly”;
• And, finally, Iran’s acceptance of the cost of a decade of slowly escalating sanctions, which might have been easily avoided by allowing inspections.

But forget all that. Let’s look at the other assertion: the Iranian regime is a “rational actor”. In other words, they are not crazy. They can be relied upon to do the rational thing, and therefore they will be deterred by the threat of retaliation from Israel or the US if they initiate a nuclear attack on Israel (or us).

This assertion may be true or it may be false. Consider those two possibilities.

If the regime is rational, it will presumably weigh the benefits and risks before initiating an attack. And what will they conclude? Will they quake in fear at the prospect that President Obama would retaliate against Iran, given that Russia and/or China would almost certainly threaten counter-retaliation? Or will they conclude that any US response would be limited to condemnation, sanctions, and aid to any Israeli survivors. If you can imagine Obama pressing the button for military action to punish Israel’s murderers after the fact, then you need to look in the mirror and ask what kind of actor you are.

But what about Israeli retaliation? Wouldn’t that threat be sufficient to deter a nuclear Iran?

Maybe yes, maybe no. Unlike the US and USSR, Israel is so small (about the size of New Jersey) that targeting all its military sites in a “first strike” is by no means unthinkable. And if a few nukes escape and get through to Iran, the devastation of a few centers might be survivable.

As we know from the Cold War, “thinking about the unthinkable” is a strategic necessity for all nuclear states. We did it, the Soviets did it, and you can bet the Iranians are doing it, too. But they are processing the thought through a 7^th century brain and the disturbing question: “What Would the 12^th Imam Do?”

Yet General Dempsey says that Iran is a rational actor,

And General Dempsey is an honorable man. Continue reading ‘Is Iran a “Rational Actor”?’