Mister Moleman and his Friends

UPDATE:  Obama won.   This piece originally was titled “Does This Election Matter?”  I would have done a strikethrough of the word “Does” before the “Did”, but I don’t know how to do that.

Time will tell if my worries are warranted or not.  But the election has made it clear that the American people are not in a mood to be too concerned about anything that happens outside our borders.   Isolationism often follows troublesome wars.

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by Hans Moleman

Recently a bright young lady of my acquaintance was expressing her frustration with the present political campaigns, especially the Obama-Romney choice.  She asked the question many people ask:  Does it really matter?

We agreed that the economy is out of control, but also that economists don’t really know what the effects will be of any policy.  As my friend Finiti says, economics, like all the “social sciences”, is not really a science.  He calls it a branch of philosophy.  The one thing it cannot do is conclusively answer a question about the future.

But I told her there was at least one area where I am convinced that there is a clear choice between two very different outcomes.  I believe that war in the Middle East, and a possible World War, hang in the balance.  And that war, like WWII, can only be prevented by those willing to use limited force before it is too late.

I cited two scenarios.

First Scenario: Obama is re-elected.  Iran continues its current program of nuclear enrichment and weapons development.  Israel warns that Iran is reaching the point beyond which the program cannot be stopped.  Obama, to judge by his past actions, disagrees, and counsels patience and more sanctions.  Obama says (privately) that if he is wrong and Israel is right, Israel will still be safe because we will deter any Iranian aggressive action.

Israel assesses the value of this assurance.  It means that in the event of a successful, destructive Iranian attack on Israel, the US will retaliate with a nuclear counter-attack on Iran.  Israel wonders: would Obama follow through?  More importantly, would Iran believe that Obama would follow through?

What if Russia steps in and warn the US that any attack on Iran will be treated as an attack on Russia? In that case, would Obama risk a Russian counter-attack on the US just to carry out a posthumous (post-Holocaust II) commitment to punish Iran for destroying Israel?

Here the question marks stop.  The clear answer is NO.  US action in that case would be limited to UN resolutions, more feeble sanctions, and dithering demands that Russia stop supporting Iran.

One thing is certain.  Israel knows that no other country can be counted on to prevent the annihilation of Israel.  Just as Hitler knew in the 1930’s that no other nation would take action to prevent the annihilation of Europe’s Jews.  Israel was founded on this principle.  And Iran knows it as surely as Hitler did.

So Israel will decide Obama’s promises are not sufficient to guarantee Israel’s survival, and that it must act.  Israel’s highly effective but limited military forces can severely impair Iran’s nuclear weapons program, but cannot deal a knockout punch.  It would take repeated hits, at dreadful cost.  Russia has already bolstered Iran’s air defenses.  And Iran would feel no restraint in counter-attacking Israeli cities.

Could Israel expect Obama to stand by them while they use up their air forces in repeated attacks?  Obama has made it clear that if Israel acts alone, it will be on its own.

Would the Arab street, even the “Arab Springtime” street, miss the opportunity to join what could be the final anti-Israel War?  Would the US and Russia eventually be drawn in?   What do you think? Continue reading ‘Obama, Romney, Israel, Iran: Did This Election Matter?’